Modeling High-Risk Areas for Gastric Cancer in Men and Women, 2005-2009

Document Type : Original Article (s)

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Basic Sciences, School of Health, Safety and Environment, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Biostatistics, School of Allied Medical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

3 Professor, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

4 Assistant Professor, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Background: Gastric cancer is the first most common cancer in men and third common cancer in women. In this study, we used space-time scan statistics to present geographical distribution model of gastric cancer and to detect high-risk cluster based on the gender.Methods: In this applied study, data reported by Iran cancer registry system broken by province level for the period of 2005-2009 were used. Space-time scan statistics was used to analyze the data and probable clusters were detected using sat scan software. In addition, ArcGIS10 was used to map the distribution of gastric cancer and to found clusters across the country.Findings: The most likely cluster that was significant for men included Ardabil, Guilan, Zanjan, East Azerbaijan, Qazvin, West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Hamadan, Tehran, and Mazandaran provinces during 2008-2009. For women, most likely cluster included Ardabil, Guilan, Zanjan, Qazvin, West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Hamadan, Tehran, Mazandaran, Qom, Semnan, and Markazi provinces.Conclusion: This study revealed similar distribution for gastric cancer in men and total population. For female population, the pattern is slightly different. Screening for early detection of gastric cancer in high-risk areas is recommended.

Keywords


  1. International Agency for Research on Cancer. All Cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) Estimated Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence Worldwide in 2012 [Online]. [cited 2012]; Available from: URL:http://globocan.iarc.fr/Pages/fact_sheets_cancer.aspx. 2015.
  2. Rezaeeian M. Geographical epidemiology. Rafsanjan, Iran: Rafsanjan School of Medical Sciences Publication; 2012. [In Persian].
  3. Snow J. On the mode of communication of cholera. 2nd ed. London, UK: John Churchill, 1588. p. 162.
  4. Brody JG, Aschengrau A, McKelvey W, Rudel RA, Swartz CH, Kennedy T. Breast cancer risk and historical exposure to pesticides from wide-area applications assessed with GIS. Environ Health Perspect 2004; 112(8): 889-97.
  5. Belli S, Benedetti M, Comba P, Lagravinese D, Martucci V, Martuzzi M, et al. Case-control study on cancer risk associated to residence in the neighbourhood of a petrochemical plant. Eur J Epidemiol 2004; 19(1): 49-54.
  6. Naus JI. The Distribution of the Size of the Maximum Cluster of Points on a Line. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1965; 60(310): 532-8.
  7. Naus JI. Clustering of random points in two dimensions. Biometrika 1965; 52(1-2): 2637.
  8. Kulldorff M, Nagarwalla N. Spatial disease clusters: detection and inference. Stat Med 1995; 14(8): 799-810.
  9. Kulldorff M, Athas WF, Feurer EJ, Miller BA, Key CR. Evaluating cluster alarms: a space-time scan statistic and brain cancer in Los Alamos, New Mexico. Am J Public Health 1998; 88(9): 1377-80.
  10. Kulldorff M, Heffernan R, Hartman J, Assunção R, Mostashari F. A space–time permutation scan statistic for disease outbreak detection. PLoS Med 2005; 2(3): e59.
  11. Luginaah IN, Gorey KM, Oiamo TH, Tang KX, Holowaty EJ, Hamm C, et al. A geographical analysis of breast cancer clustering in southern Ontario: generating hypotheses on environmental influences. Int J Environ Health Res 2012; 22(3): 232-48.
  12. Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Center for Disease Control and Prevention Non Communicable Diseases, Unit Cancer Office. Iranian annual cancer registration report 2009 [Online]. [cited 2011]; Available from: URL: http://ircancer.ir/Portals/0/CancerBooks/Iran%20Cancer%20Report%201388.pdf [In Persian].
  13. Statistical Centre of Iran. National population and housing censuses 2006 [Online]. [cited 2007]; Available from: URL: https://www.amar.org.ir/Default.aspx?tabid=521 [In Persian].
  14. Neil DB, Moore AW. Detecting space-time clusters: prior work and new directions [Online]. [cited 2004 Nov]; Available from: URL: http://repository.cmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3365&context=compsci. Carnegie Mellon University
  15. Software for the spatial and space-time scan statistics. SaTScan [Online]. [cited 2014]; Available from: URL: http://www.satscan.org/
  16. Asmarian N, Kavousi A, Salehi M, Mahaki B. Mapping of stomach cancer rate in Iran using area-to-area Poisson Kriging. J Health Syst Res 2012; 8(4): 681-7. [In Persian].
  17. Somi MH, Golzari M, Farhang S, Naghashi S, Abdollahi L. Gastrointestinal cancer incidence in East Azerbaijan, Iran: update on 5 year incidence and trends. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev 2014; 15(9): 3945-9.
  18. Behnampour N, Hajizadeh E, Zayeri F, Semnani S. Modeling of influential predictors of gastric cancer incidence rates in Golestan province, North Iran. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev 2014; 15(3): 1111-7.
  19. Mohebbi M, Mahmoodi M, Wolfe R, Nourijelyani K, Mohammad K, Zeraati H, et al. Geographical spread of gastrointestinal tract cancer incidence in the Caspian Sea region of Iran: spatial analysis of cancer registry data. BMC Cancer 2008; 8: 137.
  20. Kavousi A, Bashiri Y, Mehrabi Y, Etemad K. Detecting high risk cluster of Gastric cancer incidence in Iran by spacetime scan statistic during 2005 to 2009. J Health Syst Res 2014; 10(4): 786-94. [In Persian].